Berk Bayri

AI makes expertise less important

A common misconception about AI, work and organizations, tested against the evidence.

The myth
As AI gets better, domain expertise becomes less valuable because the model can supply the missing knowledge and judgment.
The reality
AI can narrow performance gaps on some tasks, but current evidence also shows experts can extract different and more durable gains. Expertise may move from producing every step to judging, directing and learning from AI.

Explanation and evidence

The argument

AI often helps less-experienced people more. That does not mean expertise stops mattering.

A 2026 randomized experiment with 1,174 adults found that generative AI sharply narrowed an education-based productivity gap on a business problem-solving task. That is real evidence for capability leveling.

But another 2026 field experiment complicates the story. In a three-month trial with 133 practicing patent lawyers, AI improved assisted drafting quality, with larger immediate gains among junior lawyers. When participants later performed an expert judgment task without AI, however, the durable improvement was concentrated among senior lawyers. The authors conclude that foundational expertise may help people extract durable skill from AI-assisted practice.

AI can reduce the advantage of expertise in producing an answer while increasing the value of expertise in judging what to do with it.

Why people believe it

If AI can explain the domain, draft the work and catch errors, expertise looks like something the tool is replacing.

But knowing information is only one component of expertise.

What the evidence says

Current evidence suggests different effects at different layers: AI can raise immediate task performance and narrow gaps, while judgment, transfer and durable learning may still depend on deeper knowledge.

The balance will vary by occupation and task. The myth is treating "AI helps novices" as equivalent to "experts no longer matter."

The better question

Ask: Which part of expertise is AI commoditizing, and which part becomes more valuable because AI makes production cheaper?

In many knowledge jobs, the scarce skill may shift toward framing, verification, and judgment.

Sources

Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting

NBER · 2026-09-01

Does Generative AI Narrow Education-Based Productivity Gaps? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

NBER · 2026-02-01

Building Pro-Worker Artificial Intelligence

NBER · 2026-02-01

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